Holly Springs, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS62 KRAH 051933
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region from the north through this
evening. Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the coast of South
Carolina, will drift northward into South Carolina through tonight,
then northeastward over eastern North Carolina from late Sunday
through Monday, bringing wet weather to the region. This storm will
exit the area late Monday, and will be followed by hot and muggy
conditions through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

* Scattered showers and isolated storms still expected along and
  east of Hwy 1 through tonight.

Surface high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon will continue to extend SW through the NC Piedmont into
early this evening, although this ridge (and its comparatively lower
dewpoints as compared to the Coastal Plain) will be steadily
overcome and supplanted by the encroaching Tropical Storm Chantal,
located about 100 mi SE of CHS this afternoon and drifting slowly to
the N. The current bands of tropical convection now pushing westward
over our SE are feeding on moderate CAPE, but with poor deep layer
shear. The downturn in CAPE after nightfall should result in a
relative dip in coverage later this evening. Deeper moisture (as
seen on GOES layer WV) and higher PWs (~2.0-2.4") sitting over the
NC coastal areas will spread steadily inland through tonight,
although pockets of somewhat drier air aloft over our NW should
temporarily limit the westward extent of showers through tonight.
Skies should trend to partly (W) to mostly (E) cloudy overnight with
rising rain chances mainly along and E of Hwy 1, highest in the SE
(e.g., CTZ/GSB), and isolated to no pops in the NW. After highs
today in the mid 80s to lower 90s, lows tonight should be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...

* Slight risk of excessive rainfall over much of central NC
  Sun/Sun night, with amounts of 1-4 inches possible.

* Marginal severe storm risk over our southeast areas Sun/Sun night
  for the threat of an isolated tornado or two.

TS Chantal is expected to make landfall over the central or northern
coast of SC early Sun morning before tracking northward then NE,
reaching the E Sandhills Sun evening as a depression, then moving
roughly along the I-95 corridor through E NC through Sun night. By
this time, both the strong/deep Atlantic moisture flux and the
surface wind field are likely to have weakened from their current
state. However, in this tropical environment, PW is still expected
to be well above normal, 2.2-2.5" across the CWA, with a deep LCL-0C
layer aoa 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and supporting the risk
of heavy rainfall. Many of the recent CAM runs show the heavier rain
areas spreading west of the center over the Piedmont Sun, and in
particular our far S and SW sections (including some flashy streams
like the Rocky River) could see multiple inches of rain through Sun
night. There is still too much uncertainty in coverage and amounts
for a flood watch at this time, however one may be needed tonight or
Sun morning if these CAM trends hold. Regarding the surface winds
and severe threat, while the surface wind field will have spread out
and decreased, a few stronger gusts remain possible, esp in and near
convective cells with substantial vertical growth as higher winds
aloft mix groundward. Models do show decent (25-35 kt) low level
southeasterly jetting to the E and NE of the storm`s center, nosing
into our Coastal Plain and E Sandhills counties Sun into Sun
evening, and this resultant brief curvature to the hodographs could
support a weak spinup or two in our SE, esp if we can achieve any
CAPE between tropical rainbands. Expect likely to categorical pops
CWA-wide, which is a notable westward push from earlier forecasts.
Given the more expansive cloud cover and precip, have nudged highs
down a bit to 80-85. Lows around 70 to the mid 70s, with pops
trending down and shifting into mainly NE sections as the remnant
low center tracks through the E CWA overnight. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

* Remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal likely to have minimal impacts
  to the region by Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Saturday.

* Hot and humid conditions expected each day, with the hottest day
  being Tuesday.

By Monday morning, the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal should be
in the northeast portions of the CWA as a tropical depression.
Impacts from the storm are expected to be less on Monday than on
Sunday, however there is still a chance for pockets of locally heavy
rain. This is especially true in the northeast where convergence
with a coastal front is expected. The risk of severe weather and
tornadoes associated with the system on Monday still appears to be
limited. Otherwise, maximum temperatures on Monday should range from
the upper 80s in the northeast to the low 90s in the southwest.
Overnight, temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday is expected to be the hottest day of the period in wake of
the tropical cyclone. Temperatures are expected in the 90s across
the region, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s to the low-to-
mid 100s. Along with this, scattered showers/storms are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will also stay warm
overnight, only dipping into the low to mid 70s, leaving little
relief from the heat. Wednesday through Saturday, we should stay in
a pattern of afternoon and evening showers and embedded
thunderstorms. The best chance for this will be on Thursday and
Friday as a cold front looks to approach the region. Temperatures
during this period should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows
overnight in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

Current VFR conditions across central NC will largely hold through
sunset, although FAY could see brief periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys in
scattered moderate showers through early evening. Starting around
00z-02z, MVFR cigs are expected to spread into FAY as shower bands
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal (located about 100 miles SE
of CHS currently) arrive with greater areal coverage. Sub-VFR
conditions, primarily MVFR to briefly IFR cigs, are then expected to
spread into the rest of the central NC terminals between 07z and
10z, although the greater coverage of showers and isolated storms
will be largely confined to FAY, with more patchy showers near
RDU/RWI late tonight and even fewer to no showers at INT/GSO. Cigs
are expected to improve to VFR at INT/GSO by 14z and RDU by 16z, but
MVFR conditions should persist at RWI/FAY, with a trend to more
steady rain at FAY through the end of the TAF valid period. Surface
winds will be mostly from the NE or ENE at 8-12 kts, with periodic
gusts to 14-20 kts, mainly this afternoon and again starting late
morning Sun.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, as the center of the remnant low from TS
Chantal tracks roughly to the NE between the Hwy 1 and I-95
corridor, all central NC terminals are likely to see frequent MVFR
cigs/vsbys in passing tropical showers, with longer periods of
heavier rain possible, lasting through much of Mon. For Mon night
through Thu, we`ll then be in a more typical summertime pattern,
with scattered showers and storms from mid afternoon through mid
evening, and a risk of patchy sub-VFR fog/stratus 07z-14z each
morning. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Hartfield